Predicting COVID-19 Reemergence Among Previously Recovered Cases

by | May 13, 2020 | Blog

Challenge

Policy makers and businesses across the globe are struggling to determine when and how to return to normalcy, balancing health safety with economic pressures and needs. And while most are focusing on susceptibility, case count, deaths and recovery rates one critical piece of information is noticeably missing from the equation – re-emergence. Can individuals get re-infected? Does the virus remain dormant? Can they once again become infectious?

A recent study from South Korea showed individuals recovered from the coronavirus, as evidenced by negative swabs retested positive despite strict, extensive quarantine.[1]

HBI Solutions, in collaboration with The Second Affiliated Hospital of Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen was able to develop an algorithm to identify patients at high risk of relapse/readmission after discharge. The case series provides clinical characteristics of those COVID-19 patients, despite strict quarantine, at a 16.7% relapse rate.

How We Are Helping

Our research manuscript has been made available in pre-print, and we are working to make this and other models available in COVID-19 Surveillance packages that include:

  • For Health Plans, ACO’s, Care Management Teams, and HIE’s
    • COVID-19 related IP Admission Risk,
    • COVID-19 related Mortality Risk,
    • COVID-19 Re-Emergence Risk
    • Dashboards and outreach lists
  • For Hospitals and Health Systems
    • COVID-19 related ICU Admission Risk,
    • COVID-19 related Mortality Risk
    • Tracking board

COVID-19 surveillance will be incomplete without awareness of potential return cases. We sincerely hope we can contribute to the body of knowledge around this devastating disease and supply our clients with tools they can use to reduce that devastation. Contact us to learn more.

[1] Smith J. South Korea reports more recovered coronavirus patients testing positive again. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea/south-korea-reports-more-recovered-coronavirus-patients-testing-positive-again-idUSKCN21V0JQ. Published 2020. Accessed.